Analyzing The Great Taking (systematic, global seizure of assets)

Alpha comes from mastering custody layers - not just asset selection.

Oct 14, 2025

a close up of a goat with very long horns — Photo by Navi on Unsplash

The Great Taking — Field Manual (Clean Thesis + Playbook)

0) Meta-lens

Incentives > ideals. Control > fairness. Stability > truth.
Read actions, not press releases. Ownership is whatever the enforcement rails say it is at seizure time.

1) Core Claim (What “The Great Taking” actually says)

Definition: A jurisdiction-synchronized legal/financial stack (custody law + rehypothecation + bail-ins + CSD plumbing + digital ledgers) that allows seizing collateralized claims during a systemic event.
Scope: Anything inside the custody/tiering chain (bank deposits, brokerage assets, CSD-registered securities, pooled gold, mortgages, money funds) is claim-on-a-claim, not direct property.
Exemptions in practice: Only outside-chain assets resist (physical bearer, lien-free land in your name, and resilient self-custody digital assets with your keys).

2) Base Case vs Strategic Fallback

Base Case: No overt mass seizure. Soft confiscation via inflation/negative real rates/CBDC behavior parameters.
Fallback: Overt/stealth collateral sweep if the debt pyramid outruns control (currency panic, failed auctions, cascading defaults).
Probability (10–20y):
- Soft capture (base): 65–75%
- Hard sweep (fallback): 25–35% (rises to 60–70% if sovereign funding stress becomes chronic/visible)

Why fallback, not base

Hard sweeps burn trust and can break the machine. The Controllers prefer ratchets (programmable money + identity + lineage) over bonfires — until they run out of runway.

3) Enabling Mechanisms (already installed)

Custody law: Title sits at CSD (Central Securities Depository)/nominee; beneficial owner = entitlement holder, subordinated in stress.
Rehypothecation: Chains turn your assets into counter-party collateral.
Bail-ins/Resolution: Banks/brokers convert claims to equity/IOUs; stays and moratoria freeze transfers.
Emergency powers: Harmonized templates to override contract terms “for stability.”
Digital rails: CBDC/stable/tokenized deposit scaffolds = instant perimeter control (KYC spend, tax split, revocation).

Conclusion: The tooling exists. You only need a narrative ignition.

4) Trigger Conditions (what lights it)

Systemic liquidity gap (collateral scarcity, failed auctions, large dealer retreat).
Payments/FX shock (stablecoin depeg or correspondent-bank failure).
Political delegitimization (makes gradualism too slow).
Coordinated standards go-live (identity + provenance + programmable money) → mechanical readiness for sweep.

Narrative cover set: “Prevent contagion,” “stability”, “fair and temporary”. (“Temporary” never sunsets.)

5) Treatment of State-Embedded Equities (Palantir/Microsoft archetype)

Technically seizable (held via brokers/CSDs).
Practically protected (Seizing their equity en masse would destabilize their role. Why would the Controllers burn the infrastructure they rely on?). Expect:
- Ring-fencing (explicit exemptions / standing facilities),
- Conversion (CBDC-ledger shares, in-matrix only),
- Selective protection (insiders/strategic funds safe; retail converted or throttled).

Key line: The entity is immortal; your claim on it is not. Custody is the trade.

6) Palantir: What survives vs what doesn’t

Palantir is arguably the most state-embedded company, so let’s use it as an example.

Survives: Contracts, deployment, evidentiary AI lineage — more critical under stress.
At risk: Your broker-held PLTR line item (freeze/convert/haircut).
Alpha: Hold the immortal thing’s cash flows while neutralizing claim fragility (see custody tactics).

7) Custody Playbook (invert the game)

Goal hierarchy

Escape the chain (where feasible).
If you must be in chain, minimize sweep loss and maximize post-event optionality.

Tactics (menu)

Self-custody digital (Bitcoin; clean keys; no paper IOUs).
Physical bearer (gold in possession; documented provenance).
Unencumbered land (no liens; low local confiscation risk).
Direct registration (D.R.S.) where genuinely possible (issuer-level ledger; caveat emptor—many “DRS” are still nominee wrappers).
Jurisdictional diversification (brokers, banks, CSD exposure, entity wrappers).
Options sleeve (long-dated calls on state-embedded names: cash-settled into new rails if spot is frozen).
Broker risk tiers (avoid omnibus-only, rehypothecation-happy venues).
Avoid leverage, margin rehypothecation agreements, pooled “segregation” marketing.

8) What changes the odds (watchlist)

Funding tells: bill/coupon mix stress, failed auctions, dealer balance-sheet retrenchment.
Policy harmonization spikes: simultaneous ID/provenance mandates across allies (the Policy Synchronization Coefficient meter maxes).
Banking “pilot crises”: small resolution templates that normalize bail-ins.
CBDC retail pilots → benefit disbursements (big tell).
Legal dry runs: court rulings prioritizing systemic stability over property claims.

9) Misconceptions vs Reality

“It can’t happen here”. It’s already coded to happen anywhere.
“DRS fixes all”. Often still a claim in a tiered chain; verify issuer-level title.
“Gold ETF = gold”. Pooled claims ≠ bars in your hand.
“Palantir’s safe so I’m safe”. Company safe ≠ your claim safe.

10) My Allocation Logic

Core engine: State-embedded software (Palantir/Microsoft-Gov/PANW).
Hedge engine: Clean self-custody Bitcoin (shock convexity if sweep).
Physical ballast: modest unencumbered physical (gold/land) where you control access.
Do not: finance the above with margin or keep them inside easily swept wrappers.

11) Decision Tree

Shock arrives → is it localized or funding-systemic?
- Localized: Expect soft confiscation ratchet only → add state-embedded names (PLTR > MSFT > PANW) on fear.
- Funding-systemic: Move to outside-chain reserves, swap broker exposure to options, prepare for convert/freeze/haircut.
CBDC benefits pilot goes live → treat as point-of-no-return for soft capture.

12) One-page Summary

Great Taking = legal right + technical ability to sweep collateralized claims.
Base: soft capture (inflation + CBDC parameters). Fallback: sweep on crisis.
Immortal entities (Palantir/Microsoft-Gov) likely protected; your claims are not.
Alpha comes from mastering custody layers - not just asset selection.
Action: Own the control substrate; keep a sovereign sliver outside the chain; never let margin or pooling convert you into free collateral.

13) What would make me raise odds to 60–70% (hard sweep)

Multiple failed sovereign auctions despite bill skew.
Coordinated capital controls lite (with “anti-fraud” framing).
Retail CBDC tied to ID for benefits at scale across 2–3 major blocs.
Legal opinions explicitly subordinating beneficial owners to systemic stability (and surviving appeal).

Bottom line

The game is simple: the Controllers keep immortal entities; you keep disposable claims — unless you invert custody. My base case (soft capture) is rational; my fallback (hard sweep) is sufficiently probable to insure against. Position accordingly and you won’t need to improvise when the script runs.