Current rails -> Regulated Stablecoins -> phased CBDCs (Investment Implications)

We are in a transition from the current rails -> regulated stablecoins (plus tokenized deposits) -> phased CBDCs, with years of overlap.

Oct 15, 2025

a group of sheep laying on top of a lush green field — Photo by Ben Mathis Seibel on Unsplash

Executive snapshot

Path: Current card/ACH/wire rails → regulated stablecoins + tokenized deposits (do the training + plumbing) → phased CBDCs (re-platform settlement).
Mode: Multi-year overlap; stablecoins domesticate UX/compliance, CBDCs take the core ledger when the stack + habits are ready.
Why: Incentives > ideals; control > fairness; stability > truth. Stablecoins normalize programmability and ID-bound money with private vendors absorbing the political heat; CBDC arrives as a “technical upgrade”.

The transition stack

Phase 0 — Today’s rails (still dominant)

Card/ACH/wire/SWIFT with layered KYC/AML, chargebacks, and private networks.
Policy levers: bank Acceptable Use Policies, card network rules, app-store gatekeeping, sanctions lists.

Phase 1 — Regulated stablecoins + tokenized deposits (heavy overlap)

Stablecoins (USDC, PYUSD, bank-issued): ID’d wallets, blacklistable funds, freeze/recover features, automated attestations.
Tokenized deposits: bank money on a chain/ledger with bank KYC and programmable hooks (instant tax/VAT split, escrow).
What this phase accomplishes:
- User education: self-custody looks possible but mainstream flow is custodial/KYC wallets.
- Merchant normalization: settlement speed, lower MDR pitches; compliance by default baked into POS/API.
- Vendor ecosystem: identity (KYC), analytics, AML, dispute, provenance — all perfected by private firms.
- Legal domestication: courts, auditors, and regulators get comfortable with revocation, blacklists, attestations.

Phase 2 — Phased CBDCs (behind the scenes first)

Wholesale/RTGS (Real-Time Gross Settlement) orchestration: central-bank core + commercial-bank distribution.
Retail pilots ride on existing wallet front-ends (banks/fintechs), preserving familiarity.
Scope creep: programmable disbursements (benefits/UBI), real-time tax split, conditional subsidies, cross-border corridors with allies.
Stablecoin corral: stricter reserve/tiering; narrow use cases (B2B flows, interop bridges, niche remittances), higher compliance overhead.

Trigger accelerants: acute payment, cyber, or banking stress → “we need resilient, instant, programmable settlement.” (Problem → Reaction → Solution.)

What stablecoins really normalize (Trojan horse specifics)

ID-bound money: wallets tied to verified identity; travel-rule style metadata by default.
Blacklists/recalls: socially sold as “anti-fraud” and “consumer protection”.
Automated tax & reporting: programmable splits (VAT, withholding), event-driven 1099s/SAFs.
Dispute & recovery rails: escrow, time-locks, regulator/issuer override procedures.
Programmable disbursements: rebates/benefits with policy conditions (geofenced, time-boxed).

Result: by the time CBDC re-platforms the core ledger, habits and vendor tooling already assume programmability + ID.

Incentives by actor (revealed preference)

Central banks / treasuries

Retain monetary transmission precision, AML visibility, sanction leverage, crisis knobs (pause, throttle, tier).
Outsource political pain to private issuers during the learning phase.

Banks

Tokenized deposits defend their moat; keep customers in bank-money with new fee lines (data, compliance APIs).
Prefer wholesale CBDC + bank-distributed retail — avoid disintermediation optics.

Fintechs / wallets

Distribution rents (on-ramp, KYC, fraud tools, analytics); become front-end custodians of policy-compatible money.

Merchants

Lower Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) via stables/tokenized deposits; chargeback rules shift to programmable conditions; tax automation reduces audit risk.

Regulators

Data completeness improves; disputes/auditability become push-button; harmonization with allies is easier.

Overlap timeline (directional)

2025–2027: Stablecoins/tokenized deposits scale, rules tighten; wholesale CBDC pilots expand.
2027–2030: Retail CBDC limited pilots via banks/fintechs; mandates for certain government disbursements.
>2030: CBDC becomes core settlement in key corridors; stablecoins sit inside guardrails.

Control knobs already live (no new laws needed)

App-stores: default-ban non-KYC wallets or require “enhanced verification”.
Bank AUPs (Acceptable Use Policies): off-ramp gating; higher friction to self-custody paths.
Cloud/CDN AUPs: compliance attestation for wallet/node services.
Card/network rules: merchant incentives to accept supervised rails.
Sanctions blacklists: stablecoin issuers enforce lists at contract level.

Crisis scripts that speed the pivot

Stablecoin depeg or major custodial failure: “Safe, supervised CBDC is required”.
Payments outage/cyber incident: “Resilience through central bank rails”.
Banking stress (duration/funding): tokenized deposits + CBDC backstops to ensure instant settlement.
Cross-border sanctions event: allied CBDC corridors for compliant flows.

After each shock: stablecoin leeway narrows; CBDC scope expands.

Investment implications

Overweight (structural):

Policy-grade AI & lineage: Palantir (provenance, audit, admissible decisions).
Identity/auth/compliance: MSFT (Entra/Compliance/Purview).
Payment middleware: V/MA.
Cyber: PANW.
Commodities: Bitcoin, Gold.
Current outlook: PLTR > Bitcoin > Gold > MSFT > PANW.

Tactical: add on fear dips (stablecoin scare, hearings); trim into clarity ramps (framework announcements).

Behavior & default economics (why it sticks)

Defaults win: payroll/benefits/refunds paid to compliant wallets → merchants follow the money.
Friction asymmetry: self-custody = more steps/risk; custodial stablecoin = one-tap.
Incentives: tax rebates, fee discounts, instant settlement — only on supervised rails.
Habit hysteresis: once accounting/tax/ERP assumes programmable money… people don’t switch back.

KPIs & tells to monitor weekly

Policy Synchronization Coefficient (PSC): same wallet/ID standards appear across allies.
Legibility Pressure Index (LPI): attest/trace/revoke/rollback verbs in RFPs/regs.
Programmability Penetration Rate (PPR): % of payments via programmable rails (stables/tokenized deposits/CBDC pilots).
Perimeter Tightness Index (PTI): app-store/bank/cloud AUP changes; wallet listing delistings.
Gov disbursement share on tokenized rails.
Stablecoin corral metrics: reserve-quality mandates, tiered use-cases, on-chain blacklist stats.

Scenarios & odds (directional, 3–5 yrs)

Base (60%): Stablecoins/tokenized deposits scale; CBDC wholesale + retail pilots; stablecoins narrowed but not killed.
Accelerated (25%): A payments/cyber incident — CBDC scope jumps; stablecoin rules harden quickly.
Slower (10%): Legal/political push-back delays retail CBDC; wholesale & tokenized deposits carry the day longer.
Hostile (5%): One or more jurisdictions clamp down on stables broadly; others fill the gap.

What this is not

Not about “killing banks”. It’s about making banks programmable (tokenized deposits) and tying wallets to identity.
Not about “banning cash tomorrow”. It’s about super-sizing the digital share until cash/counter-rails are edge cases.

Practical counter-moves (non-investment)

Keep a sovereign reserve (Bitcoin, Gold self-custody) separate from anything you might need to off-ramp quickly.
Map your personal/business default surfaces: bank, app-store, cloud — assume knobs get tighter.
If you must operate cross-jurisdiction, harmonize your own compliance artifacts (ID, attestations, audit trails) to avoid frictions later.

Bottom line

Stablecoins are the onboarding campaign; CBDCs are the operating system upgrade. The former trains users and vendors to accept programmable, ID-bound money; the latter replaces the core ledger once everyone’s already acting like the new rules are normal.