Gross Consent Product (make informed investment decisions)
Gross Consent Product (GCP) - Treat a nation's aggregate "consent" as a measurable stock like GDP.
Gross Consent Product (make informed investment decisions)
“Public support” is just a way to lower enforcement costs.
When enforcement tech gets better and cheaper, the system can afford less consent.
This is why governments have put strong emphasis on improving enforcement tech, especially in recent years.
Because improved enforcement tech = consent substitution.
Gross Consent Product (GCP) - Treat a nation’s aggregate “consent” as a measurable stock like GDP.
Consent is the cheapest enforcement input; when it’s scarce, systems spend more on tech + law (think Palantir, Microsoft, PANW).
When GCP falls, rails (identity/cloud/audit) outperform.
As I previously stated “When enforcement tech gets better and cheaper, the system can afford less consent”.
Which can be inverted to “When consent is scarce, systems spend more on tech + law”.
What to measure
Build a live GCP nowcast (5 buckets, all objective - can use ChatGPT):
Compliance/Friction
E-invoicing coverage %, tax-gap delta
KYC/AML hit rates, charge-back fraud after new rules
% transactions on ID-bound wallets vs alt rails
Stability/Heat
Protest/strike intensity × duration
Sabotage/absenteeism proxies; 911/dispatch load after policy shifts
Injunction success rates against new rules
Narrative/Attention
Share of feed minutes by sanctioned sources
Decay half-life of counter-memes post-takedown
Administrative Throughput
Permit/benefit latency after adding compliance steps
Failure rates/timeouts in supervised rails vs alternatives
Capital Behavior
Facility taps, deposit flight, MMF inflows
Off-system leakage (cash/P2P), VPN/app sideload spikes
Output: an index + elasticity: Δparameter / ΔGCP before costs explode.
GCP thresholds (regimes)
Green (≥65): Nudges suffice. Pilots convert without big carrots.
Amber (45–65): Defaults + carrots required; perimeter assists; quick fear spikes help.
Red (≤45): Acute crises preferred; perimeter hardens; sticks applied symbolically; carrots immediately follow.
The Controllers’ response to a low Gross Consent Product (GCP) environment
Goal: restore governability without rebuilding genuine consent (too slow/uncertain). Replace consent with defaults, knobs, and rails.
A) Stabilize emotions fast (keep crises short)
Crisis cadence: run short, intense shocks (2–8 weeks) that justify new controls; slam in backstops so pain doesn’t birth alternatives outside the systems.
Narrative sequencing: problem (fear) → provisional order (“emergency standards”) → relief → permanence (sunsets slip).
Liquidity tools: standing swap lines, facility templates, bill-heavy issuance to avoid duration tantrums.
B) Tighten perimeters (law lite, policy heavy)
App stores / banks / clouds: update Acceptable Use Policies to require ID-binding for Bitcoin wallets, higher friction for “unverified” Bitcoin nodes, provenance for content.
ISPs / pools / payment networks: adopt policy clients (blacklist templates, template filters, travel-rule scanning).
Procurement: “security by default” in contracts — identity, lineage, audit, revocation baked in.
C) Normalize programmable money
Phase 1: push stablecoins/tokenized deposits with carrots (cashback, fee holidays, instant refunds).
Phase 2: ID-bound wallets for benefits/payroll permits.
Phase 3: CBDC corridors for government disbursements/tax split; private rails interoperate but inherit policy parameters.
D) Make reality legible and admissible
Content provenance: C2PA-like signatures in devices, editors, CDNs; unsigned = de-ranked.
AI governance: only deploy models that emit signed, roll-backable, chain-of-custody artifacts.
Operational telemetry: meters/sensors/logistics stamped to identity for real-time audits.
E) Buy quiet with Consent-for-Cash
Targeted rebates/UBI pilots only on supervised wallets; fee holidays for merchants on official rails; subsidize identity onboarding.
F) Synchronize rules across allies (Policy Synchronization Coefficient ↑)
Push near-identical templates (ID, provenance, AML, e-invoicing, incident reporting) to allies so compliant vendors scale globally; non-compliant ones suffocate.
Rail stack the Controllers buy in a low GCP environment
Identity layer: person ↔ device ↔ SIM/eSIM ↔ account ↔ wallet (hardware attestation + biometrics).
Money layer: tokenized deposits/stablecoins → CBDC corridors (gov disbursements, tax split).
Content layer: C2PA-style signing, CDN enforcement, revocation keys; unsigned = throttled.
Data/AI layer: fusion + data rights + consent ledger + lineage + rollback (admissible AI).
Perimeter mesh: app-store policy, bank Acceptable Use Policy, cloud ToS, ISP filtering/templates.
Command layer: cross-domain operating picture (health/safety/finance) with tunable policy parameters.
Macro expectations in a low GCP environment
Inflation: tolerate 3–4% CPI “repression band” over deep recessions.
Liquidity: choppy but net-accommodative; bill-heavy issuance, facility templates; quick pivots on vol spikes.
Vol: headline spikes; realized vol decays in paperized assets; “clarity pops” then managed corridors.
Signals to add:
Net Liquidity +$100B (Fed BS − TGA − RRP, 4-week delta) and bill-heavy calendar
Policy Synchronization Coefficient/Legibility Pressure Index spikes (attest/rollback/trace/prove/revoke in drafts/RFPs)
Perimeter Acceptable Use Policy tightenings (app stores/banks/clouds/pools)
Value at Risk shock tells: VIX > 40 / MOVE > 150 + ETF discounts + margin hikes
Trim/overwrite when: regulatory-clarity PR waves, big-award headlines, index inclusions (consultants arrive). Use covered calls while IV is fat.
Forced-seller windows
Pre-stage staggered limits (−3/−5/−8/−12%) for state-embedded winners (PLTR > MSFT > PANW).
Add on “exhaustion day” (big down → close flat/up with breadth flip).
Prefer cash/vanilla options; avoid leverage. Your edge is being unforced.
How the Controllers replenish Consent cheaply
Habit subsidies on supervised rails only (cashback, bill-pay discounts) → incentive hysteresis (changes in economic conditions or policies lead to lasting effects on individuals’ motivation or behavior, even after the original incentives are removed).
Status tokens (verified badges, priority lanes) tied to compliant behavior.
Default migrations: payroll/refunds/public services → ID-wallets by default.
Short scandal half-lives via provenance flags and de-indexing.
Failure modes (what drains GCP fastest)
Parameter whiplash (contradictory toggles).
Unenforceable edicts (perimeter can’t implement).
Visible asymmetry (rules for thee, not for me).
Convenience vacuum (sticks without carrots → black markets).
Single-point outages (central rails down → legitimacy hit).
The aftermath of Covid for Gross Consent Product
It should be obvious, even to the most blue-pilled, that the aftermath of the Covid fiasco has significantly lowered GCP.
Your measurements may vary, but mine show a significant drop-off between 2019 and present times.
I expect financial repression (3-4% sticky CPI) and short shocks (2-8 weeks).
With current consent levels, you won’t be seeing prolonged crises. Crises will be kept long-enough so that citizens ask their governments for a solution (knobs implementation), but not long-enough to birth alternatives outside the system.
Liquidity will be choppy, but net-accommodative; bill-heavy issuance, facility templates; quick pivots on vol spikes.
The Controllers’ doctrine
Measure consent as cost, not feeling.
Defaults rule; carrots buy time; perimeter makes it stick; sticks are selective.
Simulate first, act fast, ratchet standards after.
Harmonize quietly between allies (Policy Synchronization Coefficient) via perimeters; treaties are optional.
Leave artifacts (admissible AI decisions) that survive courts and history (Palantir, Microsoft).
Subsidize habits until they self-maintain (hysteresis).
Avoid whiplash; never issue rules you can’t enforce at the perimeter.
Keep crises short (2-8 weeks); use them to install knobs; never waste one.
Narratives follow plumbing; invest in plumbing first.
Legibility beats persuasion; convenience beats coercion (until it doesn’t — reserve the stick).
TL;DR for allocation
If you internalize Gross Consent Product (GCP) this way, “policy” stops being speeches and becomes parameter management with cost control.
Low GCP = consent substitution with rails. Own the platforms that make control cheap (Palantir > Microsoft > PANW). Buy them on VaR-driven fear, sell a little into “clarity,” and let synchronized standards compound.
Keep a sovereign hedge for tails (Bitcoin, Gold).
None of this should be considered investment advice.
Other articles I’ve written on investing:
How people and systems handle complexity (investment implications)
What inflation/real-rate band maximizes system stability with minimal consent drawdown
Why Mainstream Media is pushing the debasement trade (Gold, Bitcoin)
What the financial system is designed to do (First Principles)
Constrained Efficient Market Hypothesis (how Prices get made)
Analyzing The Great Taking (systematic, global seizure of assets)
Other articles I’ve written on Bitcoin & Gold:
Why Mainstream Media is pushing the debasement trade (Gold, Bitcoin)
Permissionless technology ≠ permissionless adoption (implications for Bitcoin)
Game Theory: How Governments could delegitimize Bitcoin Maximalism
Subscribe:
Share: