How the world works from the Controllers' perspective
Legitimacy is expensive; legibility mints cash. Control is implemented by defaults, parameters, and perimeters, not by arguments. Read the knobs → predict policy → front-run cash flows.
Controller’s Field Manual
Meta-axioms: incentives > ideals · control > fairness · stability > truth · judge by revealed preference
A. Objectives (ranked, minimal)
Continuity of rule (minimize replacement risk)
Predictable compliance (govern cheaply)
Max optionality (reserve knobs in every domain)
Resource monopoly (data, compute, capital, coercion)
Narrative monopoly (“true enough to act on”)
Controller test (one line): Does this raise legibility, optionality, or perimeter leverage? If not, it’s theater.
B. Four Monopolies (core levers)
Money rails – issuance, settlement, collateral, taxation → programmable
Legibility – ID + provenance + audit → everything signable, traceable, revocable
Perimeters – app stores, banks, clouds, ISPs, payments → silent enforcement
Law-by-template – admin rules harmonized across blocs → courts/legislatures bypassed
C. Operating System (how it actually runs)
Policy-as-parameters: sliders on rails (tax split, KYC tier, provenance threshold, carbon budget)
Decision compression: detect → simulate → decide → act in hours
Ratchet doctrine: “temporary” → default
Perimeter governance: enforce at choke-points, not in speeches
Do/Don’t (for Controllers):
Do change defaults; don’t argue ideals.
Do subsidize on-rail behavior; don’t police off-rail loudly (use friction).
D. Money & Collateral (revealed preference)
Retail tier: stablecoins → CBDCs via carrots (cashbacks, instant refunds, benefits)
Wholesale tier: tokenized deposits/T-bills as collateral on controlled ledgers
Asset stack: allow paper exposure (ETFs/futures) to volatile assets → absorb demand while settlement stays inside perimeter
Inflation regime: tolerate 3–4% repression band; backstop shocks fast to avoid “regime search”
E. Information/Narrative Stack
Default provenance: C2PA-style signing; unverifiable = down-ranked/blocked reach
Identity-bound reach: pseudonymity at edges, not for broadcast
Consent calibration: visible “tests” to map tolerance; cheaper than force
Memory management: de-indexing, “right to forget,” admissibility rules → curated truth trails
F. Security Stack
Domestic Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR): fused sensors → court-ready artifacts
Critical infra: liability shift + insured control baselines; certified kits
Supply chain: sanctions/export controls embedded in ERP/logistics/banking
G. Social-Contract Management
Carrots first: programmable money benefits, tax rebates, fee holidays
Silent sticks: throttles, deprioritization, selective outages; spectacle last
Defaults decide: compliant path = one-click; alternatives = frictions/fees/reputation risk
H. International Coordination (how “adversaries” still align)
Standards > treaties (faster, deniable, vendor-enforceable)
Interoperable knobs: shared KYC tiers, provenance tags, sanctions schemas
Adversaries ≠ enemies: conflict for domestic consent; coordination in plumbing
I. Opposition Handling
Paper corridors: steer capital to wrappers (ETFs/custodians) → observable, damped, stoppable
Complexity-by-design: make alternatives cognitively/operationally costly
Controlled outlets: sponsor “safe” dissent that vents without touching knobs
Selective prosecutions: chilling effect with due-process optics
J. Metrics That Matter (dashboards)
GCP – Gross Consent Product: approval ↓ / protests ↑ / decrees ↑ / friction ↑ → GCP ↓
PSC – Policy Synchronization Coefficient: time-to-harmonize across allies
LPI – Legibility Pressure Index: attest/revoke/lineage/rollback verb frequency in Requests for Proposal (RFPs)
PR – Paperization Ratio: wrapper share vs self-custody by asset class
PTI – Perimeter Tightness Index: restrictiveness of app-store/bank/cloud Acceptable Use Policies (AUPs)
Rule: if PSC↑ + LPI↑, spending on identity/provenance/audit accelerates regardless of macro noise.
K. Crisis Playbook (PRS-R)
Problem (bio/cyber/funding/disinfo spark)
Reaction (orchestrate scarcity/confusion; highlight off-rail costs)
Solution (standards + subsidies on official rails; relief via ID-bound channels only)
Ratchet (rename the knobs “best practice”, never sunset)
L. Where the Alpha Hides
Buy the knobs: identity, provenance, audit, court-grade AI, programmable payments
Front-run harmonization: draft standard in 2–3 blocs = inevitable spend
Exploit forced flows: add on Value at Risk (VaR)/liquidity spikes; distribute into “regulatory clarity”
Prefer defaults over morals: companies selling parameters beat companies selling ideals
Monetize paperization: harvest carry where wrapper share rises; hold a small off-perimeter hedge for shocks
M. Failure Modes (what the Controllers still fear)
Legibility loss: breaks in ID/provenance linking (parallel networks, at-scale steganography)
Cheap private compute: offline AI too capable to instrument
Standards fracture: knobs don’t port across blocs → cost explosion
Consent cliffs: visible punishment sparks cross-tribal coalitions
Supply relocalization: physical bottlenecks slip the perimeter
N. Likely Next Moves (12–36 months)
Provenance default across major content ecosystems; unverifiable reach throttled
Age/ID gating becomes ordinary for large platforms
Programmable refunds/tax-split pilots expand on stablecoin rails
Court-ready AI formalized (signed lineage, rollback, consent proofs)
Insurance-driven cyber mandates (operator liability; certified controls)
O. How This Shows Up In Real Life
Fewer bans, more defaults
Less debate, more templates
Less force, more knobs
Fewer speeches, more SDKs
One-liner to remember
Legitimacy is expensive; legibility mints cash. Control is implemented by defaults, parameters, and perimeters, not by arguments. Read the knobs → predict policy → front-run cash flows.