Investing: What to Ignore and what to Watch

Learn to filter your inputs so you can stop reacting to what doesn’t move cash flows - and start positioning for the levers that do.

Photo by Ryan Zazueta on Unsplash

Apex Lens

Incentives > ideals. Control > fairness. Stability > truth.
Track binding levers (laws, standards, plumbing, forced flows), not speeches.

A) Stoplist (drop these unless they trip a hard constraint)

• CEO interviews / “vision” letters / Twitter victory laps.

• EPS beats/misses without Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)/billings/renewal terms.

• Single-number P/E without regime (real rates, term premium, stock comp).

• Broker price targets (banking conflicts).

• Word clouds / “AI mentions”.

• Macro hot takes that ignore BS–TGA–RRP, issuance mix, collateral haircuts.

• Chart lore w/o dealer positioning/liquidity maps.

• Headline CPI w/o services ex-shelter, wages, fiscal impulse.

• ESG PR instead of capital rules/liability shifts.

• Retail sentiment without knowing who the forced buyers/sellers are.

• TAM slides not ratified by standards/budgets/ATO (Authorization to Operate).

• “Pilot” PRs with no mandate path.

• On-chain vibes ignoring Bitcoin paperization, custody concentration, policy perimeter.

• Lab “innovation” that can’t ship compliance/provenance/auditability.

• Intraday news that doesn’t change Value at Risk/margin/index rules.

B) Watchlist (what actually moves cash flows & multiples)

1) Policy plumbing (binding levers)

• Net Liquidity (US): Fed BS – TGA – ON/RRP (4-week Δ).

  • + $100–200B = risk-on tailwind. – $100B = headwind.

• Issuance skew: Bills ↑ = easier; coupon-heavy quarter = duration drag, multiple compression.

• Facilities/swap lines: who’s eligible, when, size.

2) Forced-flow architecture

• Index committees: eligibility & calendar (who must buy/sell).

• Tracking-error caps: TE bands at big platforms (2–6% typical).

• Ratings/mandate triggers: downgrades (fallen angels), ESG deletions, domicile constraints.

3) Dealer & microstructure

• Gamma map: dealer sign (±) at big strikes; negative gamma = trend amplification.

• Liquidity maps: top-of-book depth, ETF primary/secondary dislocations, futures–cash basis.

• Margin/haircut updates: exchange + PB changes (who de-grosses next).

4) Legal & standards ratchets (quiet monopolies)

• Drafts using verbs: attest, prove, trace, revoke, rollback (legibility pressure).

• Perimeter governance: app-store/bank/cloud Acceptable Use Policy diffs (often faster than laws).

• Authorization to Operate/certs/framework inheritance: copy-paste deployability across agencies.

5) Procurement reality (not PR)

• Requests for Proposals/Requests for Information cadence, ceiling increases, task-order velocity on IDIQ/frameworks.

• Renewal length & uplift, min seats, termination clauses.

• Cross-border Memorandums of Understanding → Policy Synchronization Coefficient (PSC) rising.

6) Enterprise unit economics

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) vs rev, Net Revenue Retention (NRR) by logo size, cohort decay.

• SKU attach, price realization, sales comp plan changes, channel mix.

• Gross margin durability vs cloud/compute inputs.

7) Rates/collateral/FX

• 10y real & term premium (duration multiple driver).

• USD broad index (looser FCI when USD drifts down).

• Cross-currency basis, repo specialness, GC vs policy.

8) Paperization & custody (crypto/commodities)

• Paperization ratio: ETF/futures/custody share → vol path & carry.

• Custody fragmentation vs single points of failure; Proof-of-Reserves/rehypothecation.

9) Global cycle leads

• China credit impulse, global PMIs (6–9 mo lead for cyclicals/commodities).

10) Liability transfer

• Where regulation turns risk into strict liability (cyber, e-invoicing, provenance) → compliance vendors become mandatory.

11) Human capital tells

• Hires in reg counsel, Authorization to Operate, compliance eng, public-sector sales → product-market-regulatory fit.

C) Thresholds & Triggers (turn signals into trades)

Risk-on adds (scale in)

• Net Liquidity +$100B (4-wk) and TGA flat/down.

• MOVE < 90, VIX < 18, USD drifts down.

• Treasury quarter bill-heavy.

• Policy Synchronization Coefficient/Legibility Pressure Index uptick: new standards with attest/revoke/rollback in text.

• Index inclusion probability crossing rules (profitability, float, audit clean).

Risk-off hedges/trim

• Net Liquidity –$100B (4-wk) and coupon-heavy + TGA rebuild.

• MOVE > 120, VIX > 24, USD ripping, no policy smoke.

• Term premium rising (10y real ↑) + weak credit impulse.

Value at Risk shock anatomy (buy list ready)

1. Vol spike → bid vanishes; most liquid sold first.

2. Margin hikes → collateral haircuts ↑ → de-gross.

3. Basis dislocates; ETF discounts widen.

4. Policy hint → “exhaustion day” reversal.
   Action: staggered limit buys (−3/−5/−8/−12%) over 48–72h in state-embedded compounders (PLTR > MSFT > PANW); add on reversal; sell some into “clarity” PR.

D) Weekly Workflow (90 minutes, tops)

1. Plumbing: update BS–TGA–RRP 4-wk Δ; check issuance calendar (bill/coupon mix).

2. Vol/FX: MOVE/VIX/US dollar trend; repo/basis anomalies.

3. Standards/reg drafts: scan for attest/revoke/trace verbs.

4. Perimeter diffs: app-store/bank/cloud Acceptable Use Policy changes.

5. Procurement tape: new RFPs, ceiling raises, task-order velocity; Authorization to Operate/certs.

6. Unit economics: Remaining Performance Obligations/Net Revenue Retention/renewal terms for core names.

7. Index risks: who’s on deck for inclusion/deletion.

8. Dealer map: gamma/vega at key strikes; PB margin chatter.

E) Fast Heuristics

• Default beats virtue. If it ships “on by default”, it wins.

• Mandates beat marketing. If a standard enforces it, TAM is real.

• Paperization compresses vol. Carry harvest > lottery tickets.

• Forced flows > opinions. Benchmark/TE, ratings, and margin rules decide timing.

• Buy fear, sell clarity. Policy panic = entry; “clarity” PR = trim/overwrite.

F) Red Flags (walk away)

• “Pilot” with no mandate path, no renewal term, no Authorization to Operate/cert lineage.

• AI with no provenance/rollback/evidence artifacts (non-deployable where money/power lives).

• Revenue/Net Revenue Retention without cohort proof; gross margin dependent on cloud subsidies.

• Crypto theses that ignore perimeter (app/bank/cloud Acceptable Use Policies) and paper share.

G) Why this works

Because agents optimize to constraints, not truth. You’re front-running:

• Index rules before indexers,

• Standards before consultants,

• Margin/Value at Risk before forced sellers,

• Defaults before retail notices.

My current outlook: PLTR > Bitcoin > Gold > MSFT > PANW.

Follow revealed preference in the plumbing and procurement. Everything else is set dressing.

None of this should be considered investment advice.