Is Bitcoin sliding into a Bear market: My 12-month predictions
We are not in a confirmed bear. We’re in a paper-dominated, volatility-dampened regime where sell-the-spike and buy-the-scare is the playbook. Expect managed cyclicality: corridors, not cliff dives.
Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, so none of this should be considered investment advice.
At the same time, no one is doing the type of research I’m doing in the open. Not even close.
To give you some context, I am a now retired software engineer who understands meta-layer reasoning, psychology, finance, geopolitics, technology, history, and human incentives.
I retired at 30 and have had success in multiple areas.
Are we sliding into a Bitcoin bear market?
Short answer: Not yet. We’re in a managed-cyclicality, lower-volatility regime with episodic draw-downs engineered/allowed when there’s narrative cover. Recent data show stress, not a decisive bear. The tell will be sustained ETF outflows + rising policy headwinds — we’re seeing shots across the bow, not capitulation.
What the tape is saying right now
Spot/Refs: Bitcoin has been chopping ~100–115k with sharp fades from the summer high (~123k) and spikes down into the mid-90s on futures venues. CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) front contract recently printed ~95,045 into a down day.
ETF flows: Volatile sawtooth — big inflows (e.g., +$524M day) are getting interleaved with hefty outflows (e.g., −$869M day), i.e., no persistent run-rate demand. That’s classic post-ETF “paperization”: flows drive price more than on-chain activity.
Vol regime: 30-day realized/ATM implied remain muted vs past cycles, with put-skew picking up on dips — institutions are hedging, not dumping. Skew is modestly bearish; term structure not blown out.
Derivatives gravity: CME is now a dominant venue; options boards show downside protection demand but not panic; that’s corridor-capping, not cycle-ending.
12-month map (my odds)
Base case (60%) – “Corridor” market: $85k–$140k range. ETF share keeps rising, realized vol drifts lower; upside spikes sold via basis/funding hunts and options supply; downside permitted on regulatory/legal scares, then patched (“clarity” bounce).
Controlled drawdown (25%) – “Paper > coin” scare: One to two narrative shocks (policy, ETF liquidity, Core/v30-type legal overhang) drives $70k–$85k air-pocket; ETFs stabilize on policy jawboning; price re-enters corridor.
True bear (10%) – sustained outflows + liquidity drain: Multi-week net ETF outflows (>$2–3B cumulative), tighter dollar, coupon-heavy quarters, risk-off — prints $55k–$70k and stays heavy. Needs macro + policy alignment.
Regime break up (5%) – self-custody shock: Major bank/custodian event or sovereign bid leaks; self-custody premium expands; ETFs decouple; price rips through $150k+ with funding constraints the new cap.
Why these odds? Revealed preference from the state is to contain BTC, not nuke it. That means no prolonged bear (creates martyrs/off-grid migration), but managed ceilings and legal-narrative traps to shepherd usage to paper rails.
Signals that would flip me to “bear”
ETF flows: a rolling 4-week net outflow > $2–3B (aggregate) and no policy jawbone to reverse it. (We’ve had big red days, but not persistent bleed.)
Vol structure: ATM IV lifts across the curve with deepening put-skew and backwardated term (fear + demand for near-dated protection). Lately it’s tepid, not panicked.
CME positioning: sharp drop in OI with dealers long gamma (pin) vanishing and basis turning erratic — sign of de-risking, not just hedging.
Macro plumbing: Net liquidity drain (TGA rebuild + coupon-heavy issuance) with a firming USD and MOVE>120 without “facilities” chatter — equity/crypto multiples compress together.
How I’d trade it (low Gross Consent Product environment)
Buy fear, sell clarity: Lean long into policy/legal scare days (ETF outflow headlines, “node liability”, Core/v30 overhang), scale out/overwrite calls into “clarity” PR (rule text, court wins, “partnership” news). This has worked repeatedly in 2025 (flows sawtooth).
Respect the corridor: Assume spike caps via options supply and futures hunts. Take profits in the top third of the band; reload on disorder.
Keep the convexity core: Maintain self-custody tranche untouched (regime-break insurance). Paper sleeves (ETF, futures) are for harvesting the corridor.
What would argue against a bear right now
No persistent redemption loop in ETFs (yet). We’re getting alternating heavy red/green days; that’s market-making the corridor, not distribution.
Vol refuses to trend-higher. Skew twitches on down days but term isn’t blown out; institutions seem comfortable renting hedges instead of exiting.
Policy reaction function: low Gross Consent Product governments patch fast—jawbone, facilities, rule-by-Acceptable Use Policy (perimeter) rather than long pain. That supports the corridor thesis.
What would create a bear from here
A multi-venue legal hit (custodians + nodes + pools simultaneously) and a Treasury net-liquidity drain window, and ETF outflows that don’t reverse within 1–2 weeks. Stack those, you get my 10% “real bear”.
TL;DR
We are not in a confirmed bear. We’re in a paper-dominated, volatility-dampened regime where sell-the-spike and buy-the-scare is the playbook. Expect managed cyclicality: corridors, not cliff dives — unless you see sustained ETF outflows + macro drains together. Until then, keep your self-custody core for regime convexity and harvest paper around the band.
More context: