Predictive Programming: Product Roadmaps for Control Tech

Predictive Programming campaigns shape defaults before infrastructure arrives. They don’t persuade; they normalize. Read them as product roadmaps for control tech.

Oct 15, 2025

a deer standing in the middle of a forest on a foggy day — Photo by Marcel Strauß on Unsplash

Predictive Programming: the operating model

Thesis: Predictive Programming campaigns shape defaults before infrastructure arrives. They don’t persuade; they normalize. Read them as product roadmaps for control tech.

Lens: incentives > ideals • control > fairness • stability > truth.
Rule: ignore speeches; follow revealed preference (budgets, standards, pilots, app-store/bank/cloud policies).

1) The 5-step pipeline (how a campaign runs)

Seeding — Repeated cues across film/TV/news/curricula/policy drafts.
Consent testing — Polls, A/B laws, pilot cities; measure pushback.
Friction inversion — Make the preferred behavior 1-click; alternatives annoying.
Crisis catalyst — A “why now” event accelerates adoption.
Ratchet — Pilots become defaults; sunsets “need more study”.

Your edge: spot (2) + (3) early; they precede (4) by months.

2) Campaign → rails mapping (what they normalize vs what gets deployed)

A. COVID-era scripts (now a template)

Normalize: emergency powers, QR gating, bio-status checks.
Rails: digital health IDs, cross-border data pipes, “operational resilience” mandates.
Watch: renewal/expansion of emergency statutes; biosecurity budget lines; app-store health-pass SDKs.

B. Digital ID & scoring

Normalize: identity-bound access to finance, travel, platforms.
Rails: eID wallets, SIM/device attestation, app-store KYC rules, bank AUPs (Acceptable Use Policies).
Watch: age-verification/“online safety” bills; app-store policy diffs; carrier/eSIM KYC shifts.

C. Climate/energy compliance

Normalize: carbon budgets, smart meters, usage throttling, eco-taxes at point of sale.
Rails: CTC/e-invoicing, grid telematics, vehicle telematics, CBDC tax-split.
Watch: mandatory e-invoicing dates; smart-meter mandates; card-network “merchant category controls.”

D. Media/historical reframing

Normalize: provenance labels, censorship-by-policy, de-ranking.
Rails: C2PA content signing, model/data lineage, CDN enforcement.
Watch: newsroom/toolchain adopting provenance by default; platform “authenticity” badges tied to ID.

E. AI in daily life

Normalize: automated adjudication, “AI says” compliance, decision triggers.
Rails: AI governance/lineage, revocation controls, court-grade audit artifacts.
Watch: RFP verbs: attest, revoke, rollback, prove. Procurement requiring “admissible AI outputs”.

3) The scoreboard: 8 metrics that predict rollouts

Track these weekly; rising readings = imminent deployment.

PSC (Policy Synchronization Coefficient): same rule appears across 3+ allied jurisdictions within 90 days.
LPI (Legibility Pressure Index): frequency of attest/lineage/revoke in laws/RFPs.
PTI (Perimeter Tightness Index): app-store, bank, cloud AUP tightenings (distribution/monetization gates).
PPR (Programmability Penetration Rate): % payments via programmable rails (stables/tokenized deposits/CBDC pilots).
RID (Real-ID Diffusion): % services requiring verified ID to sign in/transact.
CAP (Crisis Activation Pace): days from incident → binding rule; falling CAP = faster ratchets.
RAT (Ratchet Persistence): share of “temporary” measures still active 12 months later.
BFS (Budget Flow Stickiness): growth in spend for identity/audit/AI-governance after crisis abates.

Trade rule of thumb: PSC↑ + LPI↑ + PTI↑ for 2–3 weeks → front-run vendors shipping those knobs.

4) Where to actually look

App stores: policy updates for wallets, sideloading, age/ID, “acceptable finance”.
Banks/processors: new merchant/consumer AUPs, KYC expansions, MCC controls.
Cloud/CDN: trust & safety, model hosting TOS, provenance requirements.
Standards bodies: C2PA, W3C verifiable credentials, ISO/ENISA/NIST drafts.
Budget hearings/RFP portals: verbs and modules, not summaries.
Carrier/regulator bulletins: SIM/eSIM/IMEI attestation, lawful intercept updates.

5) The big five campaigns now

1) ID-by-default internet

Tell: “Online safety/age-verification” + KYC SDKs in app stores.
Tripwire: 2+ OS/app-store partners require ID for “risky” apps.
Tickers: RELX/EXPN/EFX, OKTA, AAPL/GOOGL.

2) Programmable money lane (stables → CBDC)

Tell: government disbursements via stablecoins; tax-split at rails.
Tripwire: cross-border stable corridors w/ sanctions screening.
Trades: Long MSFT (Entra/Compliance/Cloud), V/MA, PLTR (benefits routing/lineage).

3) Provenance-everywhere (anti-deepfake → authenticity gate)

Tell: C2PA defaults in creation tools; “authentic” boosts in feeds.
Tripwire: regulators require provenance for political ads/news.
Tickers: ADBE/AKAM/NET/MSFT/PLTR; fade ad-pipes with no provenance story.

4) Critical-infra cyber with liability shift

Tell: insurers/regulators naming required controls.
Tripwire: safe-harbor laws tied to specific vendors/standards.
Trades: Long PANW/MSFT, PLTR (incident evidence).

5) Civic command stack (domestic ISR)

Tell: 911/dispatch/body-cam data fusion RFPs mentioning “real-time analytics,” “lineage,” “court admissibility.”
Tripwire: statewide contracts bundling cameras + records + analytics.
Tickers: MSI/AXON/PLTR/TYL.

My current outlook: PLTR > Bitcoin > Gold > MSFT > PANW.

6) Disinformation you can ignore (failure modes)

“It’s just culture.” No: patterns converge with standards + budgets + Acceptable Use Policies.
“If it mattered, it’d be in the law.” The perimeter (app stores/banks/clouds) is the law in practice.
“Pilots end.” Count Ratchet Persistence (RAT): pilots almost never die; they petrify into defaults.

7) Execution: weekly routine (90 minutes)

Scan app-store/bank/cloud policy changelogs (Perimeter Tightness Index).
Scrape Requests for Proposals for verbs (attest/lineage/revoke/rollback), track Legibility Pressure Index.
Check standards calendars (Policy Synchronization Coefficient seed).
Log budget adds for identity/audit/AI governance (Budget Flow Stickiness).
Update a one-pager: which knobs went live, which vendors already ship them.
Adjust positions: add on fear spikes, trim on clarity PR.

8) Non-investment playbook

Assume ID-bound defaults; keep a sovereign slice (Bitcoin, Gold) off-rail.
Choose stacks that expose policy parameters (so you can see what’s enforced on you).
Track your personal default surface: which of your banks/apps/clouds just tightened Acceptable Use Policy — defaults are the real rules.

9) Red-flag tripwires (when acceleration is imminent)

Two or more of:
(a) app-store KYC change for finance/social,
(b) bank AUP update on wallets/nodes,
(c) standards draft moves to “recommendation”,
(d) crisis headlines that fit the prepared knob.
Expect a 30–90 day policy push → position before the press release.

10) One-line summary

Predictive programming is the PR layer of a deployment pipeline. Track standards, perimeters, and pilots, not stories — and you’ll see where the world is going months before it “suddenly” arrives.