Why the Controllers use Public Companies as Proxies (Investment implications)
The Controllers outsource switches (identity, provenance, programmability, audit, revocation) to public companies because defaults scale faster than decrees and insurance + standards price coercion.
Controller → Public-Proxy Playbook
For any function X, run this:
Why X must look private (not state):
FOIA/oversight avoidance · speed-to-deploy · deniability (NDAs/insurance) · talent/pricing via markets · exportability across jurisdictions.
Control levers (revealed, not rhetorical):
Perimeter rules (app stores, banks, clouds, ISPs) · standards/ATO (Authorization to Operate) re-use · insurer underwriting · procurement ratchets (pilot → default) · indemnities.
Who gets paid (public proxies):
Vendors shipping the knobs (identity, lineage, revocation, audit, settlement), not just “features”.
Edge signals to trade:
Verbs in drafts/RFPs (attest, trace, revoke, rollback, lineage, prove) · policy sync across allies · app/bank/cloud AUP (Acceptable Use Policy) changes · insurer control lists naming specific stacks.
Priority Stack (ranked by centrality to control)
1) Cross-domain fusion & decision admissibility (the cockpit)
Why private: State-built = discovery liability + slow headcount; private = speed + deniability.
Levers: Classified awards; ATO (Authorization to Operate) re-use; “pilot → standard” ratchet; evidence artifacts mandated.
Proxies: PLTR (lineage/rollback/evidence), MSFT (Entra, Purview, M365/Azure Gov).
Signals: RFP verbs attest/lineage/rollback/evidence; emergency ATO; cross-jurisdiction templates.
2) Digital identity / KYC / age-gating (people switch)
Why private: Constitutional landmines; frame as safety/fraud.
Levers: App-store policy, bank AUP, SIM/eSIM rules, online-safety acts.
Proxies: RELX, TRU, EFX/EXPN, OKTA, AAPL/GOOGL (distribution throttle).
Signals: App-store throttling of non-KYC wallets; bank standardization; cross-border eID MoUs.
3) Programmable money rails (stables → tokenized deposits → CBDCs)
Why private: UX scale and blame absorption via networks/clouds.
Levers: Gov disbursements; VAT/tax split at source; Merchant Discount Rate incentives; whitelist wallets.
Proxies: V/MA/ADYEY, FIS/FISV/GPN, COIN, MSFT (anti-fraud/ID), JPM (tokenized deposits).
Signals: Treasury pilots; “travel-rule to wallets”; bill-heavy issuance + RRP drain (liquidity tailwind).
4) Provenance & authenticity (C2PA-by-default)
Why private: Censorship optics; sell safety SDKs.
Levers: Platform “signed-media required”; secure-enclave attest; CDN enforcement.
Proxies: ADBE, AKAM/NET, AAPL/QCOM/ARM.
Signals: Broadcaster mandates; “signed-by-default” deadlines; deepfake litigation → standards.
5) Moderation & narrative visibility (demote, don’t delete)
Why private: First-amendment workarounds via ToS + ads.
Levers: Brand-safety metrics; trusted-flagger APIs; threat-exchange.
Proxies: GOOGL/META/AAPL/MSFT, TTD, NOW/MNDY (T&S workflows).
Signals: Ad standards tied to provenance/ID; expanded transparency reports.
6) Critical-infra cyber with liability shift
Why private: Insurers police the floor; state names the bar.
Levers: Sector minimums; safe-harbor if approved stacks used; cyber insurance riders.
Proxies: PANW/CRWD/ZS/FTNT/TENB, MSFT Defender, PLTR (forensic chains).
Signals: Insurer frameworks naming products; breach safe-harbor statutes.
7) Data brokerage & geo-intel (places the state won’t buy openly)
Why private: Location/broker data toxicity; use resellers/NGOs.
Levers: Research programs; anonymization veneer; export waivers.
Proxies: RELX, SPGI, TRU, PL/BKSY.
Signals: “Research access” renewals; broker M&A; export-control carve-outs.
8) Biosecurity stack (genomics + supply telemetry)
Why private: Fear management; “preparedness” branding.
Levers: Grant→procurement bridges; EUA-style fast lanes; hospital integration.
Proxies: TMO/DHR/ILMN, IQV, PLTR, WKL.
Signals: Wastewater/genomic network expansions; hospital data mandates.
9) Grid telemetry & controllable load
Why private: “Smart control” sold as efficiency.
Levers: Interconnection codes; real-time pricing; DR incentives.
Proxies: ITRI, HON/SCHN/ETN, SAP/NOW, DT/SNOW.
Signals: DR targets; AMI refresh cycles; new telemetry mandates.
10) Trade compliance baked into ERP
Why private: Block shipments via compliance screens, not headlines.
Levers: Sanctions/entity lists synced into ERPs; automated refusals.
Proxies: SAP/ORCL, DSGX, VERX, WKL.
Signals: New list taxonomies; customs APIs; scope-3 links to trade.
11) Cloud/compute sovereignty (kill-switchable)
Why private: Hyperscalers ship sovereignty templates.
Levers: Gov regions; Key Management Service/attest; auditable residency; “break-glass.”
Proxies: MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL, NET/AKAM, OKTA.
Signals: Cross-border rulings → product changes; sovereign SKUs.
12) Civil adjudication automation (AI that survives court)
Why private: Vendor holds model liability; state gets throughput.
Levers: Evidence rules require provenance/rollback; audit trails.
Proxies: PLTR, MSFT (Purview/Records), ADBE.
Signals: Court-admissibility guidance; “AI audit” RFPs.
13) Commercial ISR (+ tasking for deniability)
Why private: “Commercial imagery” cover for sensitive tasking.
Levers: Blanket task orders; export waivers.
Proxies: PL, BKSY, primes NOC/LMT downstream.
Signals: Tasking surges; multi-year BPAs.
14) Insurance as policy enforcement (price the non-compliant)
Why private: Outsource punishment to actuarial tables.
Levers: Premium credits if on named stacks; exclusions for “unvetted” tools.
Proxies: BRO/AJG/WLTW, MKL/ACGL, plus PANW/MSFT/PLTR as named controls.
Signals: Riders naming vendors; public-entity captives.
15) “Memory-hole” & de-indexing
Why private: Censorship via IP/provenance/ToS instead of law.
Levers: Search rank; DNS/hosting AUP; RTBF rulings.
Proxies: GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, AKAM/NET.
Signals: Precedents extending take-downs to provenance/certainty standards.
Why margins look like utility × software
Mandated defaults → renewals grow via policy, not sales.
Insurer tailwinds → underwriting bakes in the vendor list.
ATO/compliance moats → the hard part is paperwork, not code.
Ratchet economics → pilots rarely sunset; they ossify.
Trader’s Checklist
Buy when…
Policy Synchronization Coefficient ↑: same rule appears across allies within a quarter.
Legibility Pressure Index ↑: RFP verbs = attest/lineage/revoke/rollback/evidence.
Perimeter tightens: app stores/banks/clouds change AUPs (Acceptable Use Policies).
Insurers name stacks: safe-harbor or premium credits list specific products.
Fear headlines: civil-liberties lawsuits, hearings, watchdog hits (forced sellers).
Trim / overwrite when…
“Regulatory clarity” PR arrives; big award pressers; index inclusions; consultant frameworks finally catch up.
Red Flags it’s Theater (don’t buy)
“Open” tools with no provenance/lineage story.
Vendors whose only moat is headcount (hours, not artifacts).
Theses dependent on “they won’t tighten the perimeter”. They will.
Bottom Line
The Controllers outsource switches (identity, provenance, programmability, audit, revocation) to public companies because defaults scale faster than decrees and insurance + standards price coercion. Own the firms shipping the knobs (PLTR > MSFT > PANW) and emitting admissible artifacts. That’s where you get software multiples on utility-like certainty.
Keep the lens pinned: incentives > ideals · control > fairness · stability > truth—and trade revealed preferences (perimeter changes, insurer lists, ATOs), not speeches.
None of this should be considered investment advice.