My 17 Bitcoin predictions for the next 1-10 years (Investment implications)

BTC lives mostly as a supervised Store-of-Value exposure — MoE is starved through app/bank/cloud policy, tax friction, and mining/pool incentives.

Oct 22, 2025

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Note: these are just educated guesses. I will likely not hit 100% accuracy with my predictions. Usually, only postdictions manage to hit 100% accuracy.

My 17 Bitcoin predictions for the next 1-10 years

A) Market structure & paperization

Wrapper supremacy (base case)
Prediction: ETF/ETN/notes + qualified custodians capture >70–85% of “BTC exposure” held by institutions/retail retirement flows.
Mechanism: tax wrappers, brokerage UX, model portfolios, retirement plan eligibility, marginability, and options liquidity.
Effect: realized volatility declines in stepped “corridors”; upside spikes are capped via basis trades and inventory leasing by Authorized Participants/Prime Brokers.
Treasury guidance herds corporates into wrappers
Prediction: Big-Co treasuries that want “BTC exposure” are guided (audit/compliance/insurance dictates) to ETFs or bank custody not self-custody.
Effect: genuine on-chain corporate demand remains niche; “BTC-on-balance-sheet” marketing persists via wrappers.
Claims exceed 21M, by design
Prediction: Synthetics (swap baskets, delta-one notes, structured products, custody rehypothecation) create effective claims > 21M, with only a fraction settled in spot.
Effect: price elasticity increases on the upside (more supply of exposure), while downside liquidity traps remain (forced selling of wrappers).

B) Perimeter steering (rails beat protocol)

App store / bank / cloud Acceptable Use Policy ratchets
Prediction: Non-KYC wallet UX is progressively starved (distribution frictions, API throttle, “risk” labels). Self-custody survives, but gets burdensome.
Effect: Medium-of-Exchange (MoE) activity shifts to stablecoins/tokenized deposits; BTC becomes portfolio exposure + niche sovereign circles.
Merchant acceptance as a supervised on-ramp
Prediction: Big Payment-Service-Providers offer “accept BTC” but instant FX into fiat/stables; settlement never touches merchant keys.
Effect: looks like adoption; actually deepens paper rails.
Node/pool policy pressure increases
Prediction: Large pools and major relays adopt policy templates (OFAC lists, known illicit content filters). Non-filtered miners become unbankable/insurable.
Effect: settlement remains technically permissionless, practically steerable.

C) Legal, tax, and accounting levers

“Clarity rallies” as planned relief valves
Prediction: Periodic “clarity” (safe harbor, ETF expansions, accounting wins) triggers managed upside, then new compliance loads reclaim control.
Effect: cyclical pump → standardize → damp sequence.
Granular tax & reporting makes Medium-of-Exchange annoying
Prediction: “De minimis” stays narrow; automated 1099-/travel-rule-style reporting expands; self-custody creates paperwork drag.
Effect: MoE inconvenience premium drives users to supervised stables.
Civil liability scaffolding
Prediction: High-profile cases establish that knowingly relaying illicit payloads (e.g., content inscriptions) creates operator risk in some jurisdictions.
Effect: chilling effect on hobby nodes → more traffic through compliant infra.

D) Mining & energy policy

Grid-service carrot & zoning stick
Prediction: Miners that provide demand-response/grid-stability get credits and interconnect priority; others face permits, noise/ESG suits, energy taxes.
Effect: hash consolidates into grid-integrated, policy-friendly operations; jurisdictional centralization creeps.
Template block policies (soft OFAC)
Prediction: Insurers/financiers prefer miners/pools with template filtering; neutral miners bear higher financing/insurance costs.
Effect: censorship resistance remains but gets cost-tiered.

E) Price dynamics the Controllers prefer

Volatility corridors, not free drift
Prediction: Realized vol trends lower (ETF share ↑, inventory lending ↑); sharp draw-downs remain (liquidity air pockets, weekend gap risk).
Band: Contained cyclical ramps aligned with liquidity waves; “overextension” cut short by supply of paper exposure + Authorized Participant arbitrage.
Crisis convexity preserved (by choice)
Prediction: A small tail is tolerated — helps keep the narrative of “free market” and supports wrapper demand (“own via safe ETF”).
Effect: sharp but brief spikes around macro/currency scares; quickly absorbed.

F) Stablecoins → CBDCs migration path

Stablecoins normalized as CBDC preview
Prediction: Regulated stables dominate MoE; programmable features (merchant ID, tax split, refund rules) become normal; later migrated into central-bank/regulated bank rails.
Effect: People accept programmable money UX before CBDC brand arrives.
Bank-grade tokenized deposits eclipse USDC/USDT at scale
Prediction: Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) consortia + card networks roll tokenized deposits with chargebacks, dispute flows, KYC; regulators quietly tilt incentives.
Effect: BTC Medium-of-Exchange niche; Store-of-Value wrapper mainstream.

G) Narrative management

“Digital gold” cemented; Medium-of-Exchange sidelined
Prediction: Official/consultant narratives valorize BTC as portfolio diversifier, not cash.
Effect: Advisors model 1–3% allocation via ETFs; that is the ceiling for most mainstream flows.
Sovereign-risk dualism
Prediction: Self-custody stays legal but rhetorically tied to risk (loss/theft/illicit). Insurance and estate tools remain scarce by design.
Effect: households self-select out; only the hardcore persist.

H) Tail-risk playbook (and the likely response)

If currency shock: tolerate a controlled BTC spike via wrappers to absorb dissent; crush Medium-of-Exchange with KYC crackdowns and extra audits.
If cyber/content scandal: use it to push licensed nodes / policy clients / provenance; “safety” equals supervision.
If commodity/fiscal spiral: allow short window of “safe-haven” bid; then expand collateralized paper to re-anchor price.

Time-boxed scenarios & odds (Controllers’ priors)

Base (60–65%): Paperization deepens; stablecoin MoE dominance; BTC vol corridors; managed “clarity rallies” followed by compliance ratchets.
Crisis-accelerant (20–25%): Macro/currency scare → sharp BTC spike; rapid wrap-absorption; MoE throttled harder.
Open spillover (5–10%): Significant self-custody cultural surge; Proof-of-Reserve norms spread; miners/pools resist templates; actual Medium-of-Exchange pockets grow. Costly to suppress, but not impossible.
Hard ban (≤5%): Only where rule-of-law optics don’t matter; elsewhere it’s cheaper to steer than to outlaw.

Metrics to watch (to confirm this path)

Paperization ratio: ETF/ETN/qualified custody share of circulating supply (climb = Controllers win, fall = plebs win).
Wrapper basis & borrow: persistent positive basis / easy borrow = elastic supply of exposure.
App-store/bank Acceptable Use Policy updates: wallet distribution throttles; auto-KYC mandates for dev kits.
Pool policies: public statements on template/filtering; insurer language in cyber/E&O.
Stablecoin share of crypto payments: Medium-of-Exchange reality check.
Reg/tax cadence: de-minimis stuck, 1099-style expansions, travel-rule teeth.
Mining interconnect & credit terms: who gets cheap power/financing.
Net liquidity plumbing: bill-heavy issuance, RRP drain, policy windows → timing for “clarity” ramps.

How to trade it

Core stance: Treat BTC as two assets: (1) self-custody tail hedge (no leverage, no lending), (2) optional paper exposure for carry/overwrites in the vol corridors.
Buy the policy dips, sell the clarity ramps: accumulate on perimeter scares/hearings; distribute into “clarity” PR.
Own the rails of supervision: PLTR > MSFT; avoid “open but ungoverned” AI/data toys.
Expect vol compression over time: don’t use leverage and don’t hold levered products (e.g. BITX) long-term because they decay; don’t chase late parabolic moves without a liquidation catalyst.
I continue to be bullish on Bitcoin long-term. My current outlook: PLTR > Bitcoin > Gold > MSFT.

Bottom line

The Controllers will let BTC live — mostly as a supervised Store-of-Value exposure — while starving Medium-of-Exchange through app/bank/cloud policy, tax friction, and mining/pool incentives.

The public sees “adoption”; the system gets containment with optional volatility valves. Your edge is to trade the pump-to-standardize cycle, keep a sovereign sliver off-perimeter, and own the software that makes the steering possible.

None of this should be considered investment advice.

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