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My 2026 markets & Bitcoin outlook + current positioning
The current plumbing mix is exactly what produces “max pain” tapes: not a clean crash, but violent chop + rotations + periodic vol spikes that punish…
Dec 15
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Control-Plane Capital
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November 2025
What made me sell most of my Bitcoin a few months ago
I am not bearish on Bitcoin's fiat-denominated price. I am bearish on Bitcoin's odds of becoming mass MoE, and I am pricing the coordination tax.
Nov 25
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Control-Plane Capital
1
Governments don't like sovereign Bitcoin nodes and they're doing something about it
Nodes don’t need to be declared Money Services Businesses in statute; they only need to be declarable as such when convenient.
Nov 23
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Control-Plane Capital
Who holds the Power in the Bitcoin ecosystem (does your node matter)
Bitcoin does not run on ideals; it runs on coordination between code, hash, and liquidity — and those are controlled by a few dozen institutional actors…
Nov 21
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Control-Plane Capital
1
Why OG Bitcoin Whales are suddenly selling their coins
They’re not “bearish on BTC” so much as bearish on sovereign MoE BTC in the medium run.
Nov 20
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Control-Plane Capital
Is Bitcoin sliding into a Bear market: My 12-month predictions
We are not in a confirmed bear. We’re in a paper-dominated, volatility-dampened regime where sell-the-spike and buy-the-scare is the playbook. Expect…
Nov 16
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Control-Plane Capital
How Bitcoin's developers are attacking its Sovereign/Monetary use
Cheaper witness, friendlier data-paths, RBF normalization, relay policies favoring deep pockets, and node-operator liability drift tilt Bitcoin toward…
Nov 15
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Control-Plane Capital
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1
Why Bitcoin is in a Lose-Lose situation with the BIP-444 Soft Fork
BIP-444 presents Bitcoin with a coordination dilemma where both branches tilt the network away from sovereign Medium-of-Exchange and toward sanitized…
Nov 12
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Control-Plane Capital
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1
Square’s Bitcoin payments: Supervision, Tax clarity, and Compliance hooks
Square’s Bitcoin payments framework is usable, cheaper, and governable. It delivers the appearance of mass adoption while ensuring supervision, tax…
Nov 11
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Control-Plane Capital
1
Bitcoin's mining centralization problem (Hashrate ≠ Freedom)
Hashrate ≠ freedom. Templates = freedom. Until miner-templating is common and censorship correlation breaks, rising hashrate is mostly optics.
Nov 11
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Control-Plane Capital
1
How Bitcoin's developers are attacking Bitcoin's user base
Leaking implementation details to the masses doesn't democratize Bitcoin; it socializes worry and privatizes control.
Nov 8
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Control-Plane Capital
Is Bitcoin decentralized & secure or is it allowed to look that way
Bitcoin is permissionless in code but permissioned in practice by choke-points that governments and large intermediaries either directly control or can…
Nov 6
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Control-Plane Capital
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